AI 2027 forecasts that AGI could plausibly arrive as early as 2027. I recently spent some time looking at both the timelines forecast and some critiques [1, 2, 3]. Initially, I was interested in technical issues. What’s the best super-exponential curve? How much probability should it have? But I found myself drawn to a more basic question. Namely, how much value is the math really contributing? This provides an excuse for a general rant. Say you want to forecast something. It could be when your ...