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The Unsustainability of Moore’s Law

Roughly every two years, the density of transistors that can be fit onto a silicon chip doubles. This is Moore’s Law. Roughly every five years, the cost to build a factory for making such chips doubles, and the number of companies that can do it halves. 25 years ago, there were about 40 such companies and the cost to build a fab was about $2-4 billion. Today, there are either two or three such companies left (depending on your optimism toward Intel) and the cost to build a fab is in excess of $1...

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