About the author: Peter Wildeford is a top forecaster, ranked top 1% every year since 2022. Here, he shares analysis that informs his forecasts.About a month ago, METR, an AI evaluations organization, published a bombshell graph and paper that says that AI is accelerating quickly. With OpenAI’s recent launch of o3 and o4-mini, we can see if these predictions hold up.The simple version of this chart is easy to explain. Claude 3.7 could complete tasks at the end of February 2025 that would take a ...