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Most AI value will come from broad automation, not from R&D

A popular view about the future impact of AI on the economy is that it will be primarily mediated through AI automation of R&D. In some form or another, this view has been expressed by many influential figures in the industry: In his essay “Machines of Loving Grace”, Dario Amodei lists five ways in which AI can benefit humanity in a scenario where AI goes well. He considers biology R&D, neuroscience R&D, and economics R&D as three of these ways. There’s no point at which he clearly argues that A...

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