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The forecasting fallacy — Alex Murrell

IntroductionMarketers are prone to a prediction.You’ll find them in the annual tirade of trend decks. In the PowerPoint projections of self-proclaimed prophets. In the feeds of forecasters and futurists. They crop up on every conference stage. They make their mark on every marketing magazine. And they work their way into every white paper.To understand the extent of our forecasting fascination, I analysed the websites of three management consultancies looking for predictions with time frames ran...

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