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Who would have won the Simon-Ehrlich bet over different decades, and what do long-term prices tell us about resource scarcity?

In the 1980s, economist Julian Simon won his bet with biologist Paul Ehrlich on material prices. But what does the long-term data tell us about supply and demand for resources?In 1980, the biologist Paul Ehrlich agreed to a bet with the economist Julian Simon on how the prices of five materials would change over the next decade.Paul Ehrlich had a clear expectation. He thought population growth would quickly deplete the planet’s resources.1 As a consequence, he expected that the cost of resources...

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