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The Death and Life of Prediction Markets at Google—Asterisk

Dan Schwarz Over the past two decades, Google has hosted two different internal platforms for predictions. Why did the first one fail — and will the other endure? It’s July 2005. Google is the darling of Silicon Valley. It has just unveiled Google Maps; Gmail is still in beta. Next year it will acquire YouTube and launch Google Translate.The week’s new hires file past a full-size dinosaur skeleton in the courtyard on the way to their first TGIF — the company’s weekly all-hands. They wear beanies...

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