Many popular prediction markets could loosely be thought of as similar to this coin-flipping example—a bet on whether some random walk ends above or below 0 at some future expiration time. For example:A prediction market on the result of a live basketball game, expiring once the remaining game time hits 0. In this example, the random walk is the score difference between the teams.A prediction market on the result of a Presidential election, expiring on Election Day. In this example, the random w...