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The US fiscal mess: Some unpleasant fiscal simulations

In June the US Congressional Budget Office (CBO) updated the budget outlook for the US (CBO 2024): the US federal debt (held by the public) is projected to grow from 99% of GDP in 2024 to 122% in 2034 – "higher than at any point in history”. 1 The US interest bill is rising. In 2024, it is projected to exceed the entire military budget. Starting from the CBO outlook, we use fiscal simulations to address three questions. First, what would it take to stabilise the US debt and interest payments in ...

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