In August 2020, I wrote a post about my AI timelines. Using the following definition of AGI: An AI system that matches or exceeds humans at almost all (95%+) economically valuable work. My forecast at the time was: 10% chance by 2035 50% chance by 2045 90% chance by 2070 Now I would say it’s more like: 10% chance by 2028 (5ish years) 25% chance by 2035 (10ish years) 50% chance by 2045 90% chance by 2070 To explain why, I think it would be most instructive to directly compare my 2020 post to my c...