"OpenAI's ChatGPT-4 Forecasts Future Events Accurately Through Narrative Prompts: Identifies Major Academy Awards Winners, Economic Trends Following Evaluation of 2022 Events, Suggests ArXiv Study"

ChatGPT Can Predict the Future when it Tells Stories Set in the Future About the Past

View PDF HTML (experimental) Abstract:This study investigates whether OpenAI's ChatGPT-3.5 and ChatGPT-4 can accurately forecast future events using two distinct prompting strategies. To evaluate the accuracy of the predictions, we take advantage of the fact that the training data at the time of experiment stopped at September 2021, and ask about events that happened in 2022 using ChatGPT-3.5 and ChatGPT-4. We employed two prompting strategies: direct prediction and what we call future narrative...