If you are reading this, you probably have strong opinions about AGI, superintelligence, and the future of AI. Maybe you believe we are on the cusp of a transformative breakthrough. Maybe you are skeptical. This blog post is for those who want to think more carefully about these claims and examine them from a perspective that is often missing in the current discourse: the physical reality of computation. I have been thinking about this topic for a while now, and what prompted me to finally write...