On my mind in August 2025 I write, to think. More than anything this essay is an attempt to think through a bunch of hard, highly speculative ideas about how AI might unfold in the next few years. A lot is being written about the impending arrival of superintelligence; what it means for alignment, containment, jobs, and so on. Those are all important topics. But we should also be concerned about what happens in the run up towards superintelligence. We need to grapple with the societal impact of ...