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How long before superintelligence?

Moore's law <A> states that processor speed doubles every eighteen months. The doubling time used to be two years, but that changed about fifteen years ago. The most recent data points indicate a doubling time as short as twelve months. This would mean that there will be a thousand-fold increase in computational power in ten years. Moore's law is what chip manufacturers rely on when they decide what sort of chip to develop in order to remain competitive. If we estimate the computational capacity...

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